Core Viewpoint - Poly Developments is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 1.026 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 79.49% due to market fluctuations and significant asset impairment losses [1] Financial Performance - The decline in profit is primarily influenced by two factors: a decrease in gross profit margin from real estate project turnover and an anticipated total asset impairment and credit impairment loss of about 6.9 billion yuan, which is expected to reduce net profit by approximately 4.2 billion yuan [1] - Excluding the impairment factors, the company's net profit for the year is projected to be around 5.2 billion yuan, with an estimated net profit of about 3.3 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, indicating an improvement in quarterly operations [1] Market Position and Financial Health - Despite a year-on-year decline in sales and land acquisition, the company maintains its leading position in the industry [1] - Financing costs remain low, highlighting the advantages of state-owned enterprise credit, and the company has ample liquidity reserves [1] - As a leading state-owned developer, the company has rich land reserves and strong cash flow [1]

Core Viewpoint - Poly Developments has shown a mixed performance in stock price and financial results, with a notable increase in stock price recently but a significant decline in net profit year-on-year [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 22, Poly Developments' stock price increased by 2.00%, reaching 6.63 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 578 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.74% [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has risen by 8.69%, with a 3.76% increase over the last five trading days and a 5.74% increase over the last 20 days, although it has decreased by 10.65% over the past 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Poly Developments reported a revenue of 173.72 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 4.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.93 billion CNY, down 75.31% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 64.98 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 12.27 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Poly Developments reached 247,700, an increase of 13.96% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 12.25% to 48,319 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, China Securities Finance Corporation holds 357 million shares, unchanged from the previous period, while Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited reduced its holdings by 333 million shares to 181 million shares [2].

Group 1: Earnings Reports Overview - As of January 22, 31 companies have released their earnings reports for 2025, with earnings forecasts being more accurate than preliminary announcements [1] - The highest revenue reported was by Poly Developments, achieving 308.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.09% [1][3] - Other notable companies in terms of revenue include Industrial Bank and CITIC Bank, with revenues of 212.74 billion yuan and 212.48 billion yuan, respectively [1][3] Group 2: Revenue Growth - Among the companies that reported earnings, 21 experienced year-on-year revenue growth, with the highest growth rate of 37.18% reported by Siyuan Electric, which achieved 21.21 billion yuan in revenue [1][2] - CITIC Securities and Beiding Co. followed with revenue growth rates of 28.75% and 26.04%, respectively [1][2] Group 3: Profitability Analysis - All companies that released earnings reports were profitable, with eight companies reporting net profits exceeding 10 billion yuan [2] - The highest net profit was recorded by Industrial Bank at 77.47 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.34% [2][3] - The largest increase in net profit was seen in Quanyuan Spring, which reported a net profit of 0.15 billion yuan, up 147.89% year-on-year [2]

Core Viewpoint - Poly Development expects a significant decline in net profit for 2025, primarily due to market fluctuations and substantial asset impairment losses [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of approximately 1.026 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 79.49% [1] - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 308.261 billion yuan, a slight decline of 1.09% year-on-year [1] - The net profit, excluding impairment losses, is estimated to be around 5.2 billion yuan, with a quarterly improvement expected in Q4 [1] - As of Q3 2025, the company reported a gross profit margin of 13.37% and a debt ratio of 73.27% [1] - The cash flow management remains robust, with a net cash inflow from operating activities of 6.977 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Market Position and Sales - Despite a year-on-year decline of 21.67%, Poly Development maintained its position as the top seller in the industry with total sales of 253 billion yuan in 2025 [2] - The company secured the largest land acquisition area in the industry at 4.15 million square meters, with a total land acquisition amount of 67.1 billion yuan, ranking second in the industry [2] Group 3: Financing and Investment - The company successfully issued a total of 6 billion yuan in medium-term notes in the second half of 2025, with interest rates ranging from 1.85% to 2.21% [2] - In January 2025, Poly Development announced plans to raise up to 5 billion yuan through convertible bonds, aimed at funding nine real estate development projects in cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou [2] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 308.261 billion yuan, 319.738 billion yuan, and 353.072 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.026 billion yuan, 1.992 billion yuan, and 2.664 billion yuan [3]

Core Insights - In 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities decreased by 14.2% year-on-year, while the average transaction price per square meter increased by 3.4% [4] - The top three companies in terms of newly added land reserve value in 2025 were China Overseas Land & Investment (CNY 99.1 billion), China Resources Land (CNY 79.1 billion), and Poly Developments (CNY 78.7 billion) [5] - The core 30 cities accounted for 43% of the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities and 72% of the total transaction value [7] Summary by Sections Residential Land Transactions - In 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities was 320 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%. The average transaction price was CNY 5,605 per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [4] - For first-tier cities, the supply of residential land was 10.77 million square meters, down 31.2% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 9.66 million square meters, down 29.3% year-on-year, and an average price of CNY 35,203 per square meter, up 18.6% year-on-year [4] - In second-tier cities, the supply was 149 million square meters, down 4.5% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 125 million square meters, down 1.0% year-on-year, and an average price of CNY 6,420 per square meter, up 3.2% year-on-year [4] - In third-tier cities, the supply was 215 million square meters, down 24.9% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 185 million square meters, down 20.5% year-on-year, and an average price of CNY 3,509 per square meter, down 1.6% year-on-year [4] New Land Reserves - The companies with the largest newly added land reserves in terms of value in 2025 were China Overseas Land & Investment (CNY 99.1 billion), China Resources Land (CNY 79.1 billion), and Poly Developments (CNY 78.7 billion) [5] - The companies with the largest newly added land reserves in terms of area were China Overseas Land & Investment (5.11 million square meters), Poly Developments (4.56 million square meters), and China Merchants Shekou (3.32 million square meters) [5] Core 30 Cities Performance - In December 2025, the core 30 cities saw 558 land transactions, with a total area of 39.32 million square meters, down 16.4% year-on-year, and a total transaction value of CNY 231.8 billion, down 32.5% year-on-year [6] - For the entire year of 2025, the core 30 cities had 1,970 land transactions, with a total area of 137 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, and a total transaction value of CNY 1.29 trillion, down 2.8% year-on-year [6] - The average transaction price in the core 30 cities was CNY 9,404 per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [6] - The overall premium rate for land transactions in the core 30 cities was 8.1%, up 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [6]

Group 1: Industry Insights - The silicon photonics industry is experiencing clear trends, with accelerated development in CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technology. NVIDIA's recent announcements at CES 2026 highlight advancements in supercomputing and optical devices, indicating a growing demand for CPO and related technologies [6][11][12] - The Vera Rubin cabinet features significant technological advancements, including 20 trillion transistors and enhanced memory capacities, which are expected to drive demand for CPO, optical modules, and liquid cooling solutions [6][11][12] - The CPO industry is evolving rapidly, with potential growth in demand for silicon photonics components, including optical engines and related manufacturing processes. Key sectors benefiting from this trend include optical interconnects and passive components [13][14] Group 2: Company Updates - Ji Hong Co., Ltd. (吉宏股份) - Ji Hong Co., Ltd. forecasts a 50%-60% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025, with expected net profit ranging from 273 to 291 million yuan. The Q4 2025 net profit is projected to be between 57 to 75 million yuan, reflecting strong performance [7][16] - The company's growth is driven by its dual strategy of packaging and cross-border social e-commerce, leveraging AI technology to enhance operational efficiency and expand market reach [17][18] Group 3: Company Updates - Beautiful Pastoral Medical Health (美丽田园医疗健康) - Beautiful Pastoral Medical Health anticipates a net profit growth of no less than 34% for 2025, with expected revenue of at least 3 billion yuan, reflecting a strong resilience and growth potential [8][20] - The company is focusing on a dual growth strategy of internal development and external acquisitions, successfully integrating brands to enhance its market position and operational capabilities [21][22] Group 4: Company Updates - Poly Developments (保利发展) - Poly Developments expects a slight decline in revenue for 2025, with net profit significantly impacted by impairment provisions. However, the company maintains a leading sales position and continues to optimize its land reserve structure [9][25][26] - The company projects a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan for 2025, down 79.5% year-on-year, primarily due to increased impairment losses. Despite this, the company remains optimistic about future performance as low-cost project completions are expected to drive recovery [25][26][27]

Group 1 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) announced leadership changes in seven central enterprises, involving 14 personnel appointments and removals [1][2][3][4][5]. - Shen Zhaojun has been appointed as the Party Secretary and Chairman of China Salt Industry Group Co., Ltd., while being relieved of his positions at China Aviation Oil Group Co., Ltd. [1]. - Liao Longhui has been appointed as a member of the Standing Committee and Secretary of the Discipline Inspection Commission of China General Nuclear Power Group Co., Ltd., and has been relieved of his role at China Aviation Oil Group Co., Ltd. [1]. - Li Yaoqiang has retired from his position as Party Secretary and Chairman of China Salt Industry Group Co., Ltd. [1]. - Zu Bin has been appointed as the Party Secretary and Chairman of China Poly Group Co., Ltd. [2]. - Liang Weihua has been relieved of his position as a member of the Standing Committee of China Logistics Group Co., Ltd. and has retired from his role as Deputy General Manager [3]. - Zhao Yongfeng and Gao Ligang have been appointed as external directors of China Coal Energy Group Co., Ltd., while Lan Chunjie and Hong Shuikun have been removed from their external director positions [4]. - Gao Chunlei, Li Yueping, Jia Shirui, and Fan Qixiang have been appointed as external directors of China Communications Construction Group Co., Ltd., with Liu Maoxun being removed from his external director role [5].

在当前房地产行业转型的关键时期，作为行业龙头央企的保利发展（600048.SH），正在通过积极主动 的调整与持续的品质深耕，在复杂环境中巩固市场地位的同时，为行业的平稳健康发展提供有益实践。 在过去2025年，保利发展通过前瞻性的去库存战略，筑牢了财务安全底线；凭借稳健的基本盘和畅通的 融资渠道，确保了经营大局的稳定；更以持续领先的销售业绩和深入人心的"好房子"产品实践，证明了 以品质驱动发展的长期主义价值。 尽管转型之路必然伴随阵痛，利润率短期承压，但保利发展坚持聚焦核心城市、深耕产品品质、拓展经 营服务、优化财务结构，契合了行业未来健康可持续发展的方向，这不仅为自身在"不动产时代"谋得了 先机，也为整个行业探索新发展模式、实现平稳健康发展，提供了具有参考价值的样本。 率先应对行业变局，坚定去库存筑牢安全底线 2025年，房地产行业进入以"止跌回稳"、风险化解与模式重构为核心的新发展阶段。当市场供需关系发 生根本性变化，消化存量、优化增量成为行业共识与政策发力重点。 在这一行业背景下，如何平衡短期生存与长期发展，防范系统性风险，成为所有市场参与者面临的严峻 考验。 面对行业趋势的快速转变，保利发展展现出敏锐 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [2] Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in sales on a month-on-month basis, supported by policies aimed at improving housing conditions for residents [7] - The overall market performance is weak, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index declining by 3.52% compared to a 0.57% drop in the CSI 300 Index, resulting in a relative return of -2.95% [4][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of financially stable real estate companies, suggesting a focus on leading firms that can effectively navigate market fluctuations [7] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 3.52%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.57%, indicating underperformance of the sector relative to the broader market [4][12] Industry Fundamentals - For the week of January 9-15, 2026, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities was 21,770 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.7% but a month-on-month increase of 12.4%. The total area sold was 201.4 million square meters, down 25.3% year-on-year but up 12.8% month-on-month [5][22] - In the same week, the total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 18,991 units, with a year-on-year decline of 11.5% and a month-on-month increase of 17.2%. The total area sold was 188 million square meters, down 11.6% year-on-year but up 18.3% month-on-month [5][40] Land Market Analysis - During the week of January 5-11, 2026, land supply was 2,198.8 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, with an average supply price of 858 yuan per square meter, down 42% year-on-year. Land transactions totaled 1,503.1 million square meters, down 41.4% year-on-year, with a transaction value of 18.91 billion yuan, down 49.5% year-on-year [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on financially sound leading real estate companies such as Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others, which are expected to perform well in the current policy environment [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance forecasts and reports of 28 companies that released their earnings reports as of January 21, 2025, highlighting the accuracy of earnings quick reports compared to forecasts [1] Group 1: Revenue Performance - Poly Development reported the highest revenue at 308.26 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 1.09% [1][3] - CITIC Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank followed with revenues of 212.48 billion yuan and 173.96 billion yuan, respectively [1][3] - Among the 19 companies with revenue growth, the highest increase was seen in Siyuan Electric, which achieved 21.21 billion yuan in revenue, marking a 37.18% year-on-year growth [1][2] Group 2: Profit Performance - All companies that released earnings quick reports reported profits, with seven companies achieving net profits exceeding 10 billion yuan [2] - CITIC Bank led with a net profit of 70.62 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.98% [2][3] - The largest net profit growth was recorded by Quanyuan Spring, with a net profit of 0.15 billion yuan, up 147.89% year-on-year [2]