证 券 研 究 报 告 以不变应万变 2026年2月可转债投资策略 证券分析师：黄伟平 A0230524110002 王明路 A0230525060003 徐亚 A0230524060002 2026.02.06 本轮可转债主升浪下，可转债估值扩张更加明显 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 26年开年可转债行情估值驱动更加显著。本轮主升浪相对25Q3而言，转债指数上涨更快，同时涨的也更高；但是本轮主 升浪期间，上证指数上涨幅度不及25Q3，同时万得可转债正股等权指数、正股加权指数本轮上涨幅度也落后于上一轮， 这反映了本轮可转债行情估值驱动更加显著。 ◼ 股性转债的余额加权转股溢价率估值提升11.66%（25Q3期间提升6.30%），同时平价较高区间的估值提升的更加明显， 比如平价在110~120、120~130、大于130的转债本轮余额加权转股溢价率分别提升15.64%、8.64%、6.22%相对25Q3 主升浪期间提升3.00%、5.62%、5.73%显著扩大；与之类似的是，本轮长剩余期限的转债的估值普遍获得较大幅度提升， 而上一轮主升浪期间不同期限的可转债的估值涨跌不一，不具有 ...

Group 1: Global Fiscal Policy Insights - In 2025, global fiscal policy is expected to shift towards a "cross-cycle" approach, with supply-side investments becoming a key focus, particularly in defense and industrial support [9][10] - The fiscal stance of major economies (US, EU, Japan) is anticipated to expand significantly, with Japan's deficit rate projected to increase by 0.8 percentage points to 3.2%, the US by 0.8 points to 6.8%, and Germany by 0.9 points to 4.0% [9][10] - The expansion of fiscal policy is characterized by a shift from demand-side management to proactive supply-side investments, indicating a more aggressive fiscal approach that is not solely triggered by recession [9][10] Group 2: Banking Sector Analysis - The banking sector is projected to experience stable revenue growth with a gradual improvement in profit margins, driven by a narrowing of interest margin declines and a recovery in market sentiment [11][12] - The performance of listed banks is expected to diverge, with regional banks in areas like Jiangsu and Zhejiang likely to achieve higher profit growth compared to larger state-owned banks [11][12] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is expected to remain stable at around 1.22%, with a slight decrease in the provision coverage ratio, indicating a manageable risk environment for banks [12][16] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights on Ecovacs - Ecovacs is projected to achieve a significant increase in net profit, with estimates ranging from 1.7 to 1.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 111-123% [17][18] - The company's new product lines, particularly the rolling drum products, are expected to enhance its market share in the mid-to-high-end segment, contributing to rapid growth in both domestic and international sales [17][18] - Despite challenges from subsidy reductions, Ecovacs is focusing on expanding its product offerings and enhancing its overseas market presence, particularly in Europe and North America [17][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in revenue and profit for the year 2025, with a projected net profit of 1.7 to 1.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 111% to 123% [4] - The company's Q4 performance is anticipated to show a net profit of 282 to 382 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 48% to 100% [4] - The introduction of new products, particularly the rolling drum vacuum cleaners, has contributed to rapid growth in both domestic and international sales, enhancing the company's market share in the mid-to-high-end segment [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of 19.94 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.5% [5] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.755 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 117.7% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to reach 3.03 yuan in 2025, with a gross margin of 48.7% [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 20.4% for 2025 [5] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 to 1.755 billion yuan, down from a previous estimate of 1.975 billion yuan, while maintaining a positive outlook for revenue growth [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in revenue and profit for the year 2025, with a projected net profit of 1.7 to 1.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 111% to 123%. The non-recurring net profit is expected to be between 1.6 to 1.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 123% to 137% [4] - The company's Q4 performance is slightly below expectations due to a reduction in national subsidies, which impacted profit margins [4] - The introduction of new products, particularly the rolling mop and water-washing products, has driven rapid growth in both domestic and international sales, enhancing the company's market share in the mid-to-high-end segment [6] - The company is expanding into new product categories, such as window-cleaning robots and lawn mowers, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth in 2025 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 19.94 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.5%. The net profit for the same year is expected to be 1.755 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 117.7% [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 48.7% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 20.4% [5] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025 to 1.755 billion yuan, down from a previous estimate of 1.975 billion yuan, while maintaining a growth outlook of 118% for the same year [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking industry, indicating that high-quality city commercial banks may exceed expectations [1]. Core Insights - The report forecasts that listed banks will exhibit "stable revenue and gradually improving profit growth" characteristics in 2025, with a projected revenue growth of 0.9% year-on-year and a recovery in net profit growth to 1.9% [3]. - Performance differentiation among various types of banks is expected, with city commercial banks showing superior results, while state-owned banks and leading joint-stock banks maintain stable positive growth [3]. - Key drivers for stable profit growth include narrowing interest margin declines, improved market sentiment, and stable asset quality ensuring credit costs do not significantly erode profits [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Listed banks are expected to see a revenue growth of 0.9% in 2025, with net profit growth recovering to 1.9% [3]. - State-owned banks are projected to have a revenue growth of 1.5%, while joint-stock banks are expected to see a revenue decline of 1.8% [3]. - City commercial banks in regions like Jiangsu and Zhejiang are anticipated to maintain high single-digit profit growth, with some banks achieving double-digit growth [3]. Non-Interest Income and Market Conditions - Non-interest income is influenced by market conditions and the timing of revenue recognition by banks, with a projected recovery in 2025 due to a low base from 2024 [3]. - The report notes that banks are likely to see a 3% year-on-year growth in non-interest income in the first half of 2025 and 4.6% by the end of the third quarter [3]. Interest Income and Credit Growth - Interest income is expected to stabilize as banks manage their asset pricing and liability costs effectively, with a projected decline in interest margin narrowing to about 10 basis points [4]. - Credit growth is anticipated to remain stable, with a focus on corporate lending, while retail lending shows weaker performance [3]. Asset Quality and Provisioning - The report indicates that the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for listed banks is expected to remain stable at around 1.22% [4]. - The provisioning coverage ratio is projected to decrease slightly to 236%, with banks advised to focus on those with low NPL generation and high provisioning ratios [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality banks that are likely to recover towards a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1, particularly city commercial banks with strong credit growth [4]. - It highlights the potential for dividend yields to attract investors, with a current dynamic dividend yield of approximately 4.8% [4].

Group 1 - The report highlights the establishment of two structural monetary policy tools by the central bank to support the stable development of the capital market, with a total combined quota of 800 billion yuan, which is expected to reshape the A-share ecosystem [4][8] - In January, the total amount applied for stock repurchase and increase loans decreased by 11% month-on-month, primarily due to an 86% decline in the amount applied for increases [9][8] - The A-share repurchase situation in January showed a significant decline, with the total repurchase amount at approximately 14.93 billion yuan, down 33% from December, and the number of repurchase plans also decreased by 42% [11][8] Group 2 - The report indicates that in January, the total amount of repurchases and increases in the A-share market was approximately 149.3 billion yuan, with 77% of the funds being self-owned or raised funds [11][20] - The report identifies three companies with the largest proposed repurchase amounts: Jinkai New Energy (5-6 billion yuan), Century Huatong (3-6 billion yuan), and Jintian Co., Ltd. (2-4 billion yuan) [11][20] - In January, the Hong Kong stock market saw a repurchase amount of approximately 12.83 billion Hong Kong dollars, a decrease of 41% from December, with Tencent Holdings, Xiaomi Group-W, and Sunny Optical Technology being the top three companies by repurchase amount [26][20] Group 3 - The report lists companies that have announced new repurchase and increase plans in January, providing insights into their fundamentals, current valuations, and the proportion of repurchase/increase amounts [31][32] - It also tracks new dividend commitments from listed companies, with a notable commitment from Yanghe Brewery to distribute no less than 100% of the net profit attributable to shareholders as cash dividends for the years 2025-2027 [34][33]

Group 1: Market Overview - The current macroeconomic environment features strong expectations but weak realities, with market implied economic growth expectations potentially exceeding the past three years, while actual economic performance remains weak [2][11] - The basic perspective indicates a weak real economy, compounded by February typically being a production off-season [11] - Recent allocation trends show that 10-year bonds outperform 30-year bonds, government bonds outperform policy bank bonds, and credit bonds outperform interest rate bonds [11] Group 2: Bond Market Strategy - In February, the overall environment is favorable for the bond market due to a policy and economic data vacuum, production off-season, and strong initial allocation forces, although the weak asset structure of bonds has not reversed [11] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to range between 1.75% and 1.9%, indicating a limited duration trading environment [11] - For the medium to long term, it is recommended to "take profits on rallies" for interest rate bonds and "increase allocation on dips" for credit bonds [11] Group 3: Credit Bond Market Insights - The credit bond carry trade strategy remains robust, but the safety cushion is shrinking, especially at the short end [9][15] - The overall credit spread is at a relatively low level, with some varieties still having room for improvement [12][15] - The demand for credit bonds is supported by the need for stable returns, with a focus on mid to short-term coupon assets [15] Group 4: Company Analysis - UGREEN Technology - UGREEN Technology is a rapidly expanding player in the global consumer electronics sector, with significant growth in revenue and profit, achieving a revenue of 6.364 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.8% [16][19] - The charging category remains the largest segment, with a revenue of 1.427 billion yuan in H1 2025, growing by 44% due to increased consumer demand and regulatory changes [16][17] - The NAS product line is emerging as a second growth curve for UGREEN, with a market share exceeding 40% in the domestic online market for NAS sales [17][19] Group 5: Financial Projections for UGREEN - UGREEN is projected to achieve revenues of 9.121 billion, 12.109 billion, and 15.798 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 0.687 billion, 0.915 billion, and 1.233 billion yuan [19] - The company is rated "Buy" based on strong growth potential, with a current market valuation indicating a 21% upside [19]

证 券 研 究 报 告 经济非典型修复下的配置行情 ——2026年2月债券投资策略展望 证券分析师： 黄伟平 A0230524110002 栾强 A0230524110003 王哲一 A0230525100003 2026.2.4 主要内容 风险提示：宏观调控力度超预期、金融监管超预期、市场风险偏好超预期、海外环境变化超预期 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 当前宏观环境特征：强预期与弱现实并存。 ◼ 从大类资产表现来看，当前市场隐含的经济增长预期可能超过过去三年。 ◼ 但从实际经济运行的量、价维度来看，基本面依然处在偏弱状态。 • PMI新订单再度大幅回落，表明有效需求不足对经济的制约仍是主要矛盾。 • 物价表现来看，CPI同比回升主要受其他用品和服务（黄金涨价）、食品烟酒（猪价企稳）的支撑，但房租、衣着、服务消费的价格 依然不强。 ◼ 基本面视角：实体经济偏弱，叠加2月往往是生产淡季。 ◼ 近期配置行情的特点：10年好于30年、国债好于国开、信用优于利率。 ◼ 中期层面需要注意的债市压力（3月两会后，尤其2季度以后）。 • 基本面改善的可能性，重点关注物价改善对名义GDP的支撑 ...

Financing & Review - In January 2026, the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) issued 5 new stocks, raising a total of 1.779 billion yuan[5] - The average review cycle for companies was 251 days, with 10 companies passing the review, a decrease of 3 from the previous month[5] - As of January 2026, there are 24 companies that have passed the review but have not yet registered, aiming to raise 8.127 billion yuan[5] Subscription & Issuance - The median first-day price increase for the 5 new stocks listed in January was +186.93%, with individual increases of +367.92%, +204.40%, +186.93%, +178.00%, and +105.63%[3] - The cumulative subscription yield for new stocks in January 2026 was +0.42%, while the cumulative yield for 2025 was +3.31%[3] - The average maximum subscription amount for new stocks in January was 16.01 million yuan, with a median freezing fund range of 828.08 billion to 1,058.86 billion yuan[5] Market Trends & Predictions - The BSE is entering a phase of accelerated expansion, with a neutral expectation of 40 new stock issuances in 2026, potentially raising a total of 11.625 billion yuan[5] - The expected first-day price increase for directly priced new stocks is projected at 300%, with various scenarios considered[5] - The anticipated online subscription yield for maximum subscriptions is estimated at 366,100 yuan, with varying yields based on different investment amounts[5] Investment Analysis - Investors are encouraged to actively monitor new stock subscription opportunities on the BSE, as the increase in issuance volume is expected to offset concerns about reduced first-day premiums[5] - The report highlights the potential for significant returns from inquiry-based issuances, particularly for high-profile companies currently under review[5] - Risks include slower-than-expected issuance rates and potential changes in the BSE's new stock issuance system[5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy indicates that technology and artificial intelligence are entering an accelerated implementation phase, and the implementation of AI applications in leading technology companies is evident, supporting their performance growth [4]. - The Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index focuses on leading technology companies in the Hong Kong stock market, has a high - weight concentration, and has relatively excellent historical performance. It also has differences and advantages compared with other Hong Kong technology indexes [4]. - The Huaxia Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF has increasing circulating shares and good on - site liquidity since its listing, and its fund managers have rich experience in managing ETF products [4]. 3. Summary According to Directory 3.1 Artificial Intelligence Accelerates Implementation, Supporting the Growth Momentum of Leading Technology Companies 3.1.1 Policy Points to Technology and Artificial Intelligence Entering an Accelerated Implementation Phase - On January 9, 2026, eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on the Special Action of 'Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing'". By 2027, China will promote the in - depth application of 3 - 5 general large - models in the manufacturing industry, form a large - scale application paradigm covering multiple industries, build 1000 high - level industrial intelligent agents, create 100 high - quality industrial data sets, and promote the implementation of 500 typical application scenarios [4][10]. 3.1.2 The Implementation of AI Applications in Leading Technology Companies is Evident, Supporting Performance Growth - Tencent Holdings: In the second quarter of 2025, AI - driven advertising technology upgrades significantly improved click - through rates and delivery efficiency, and marketing service revenue increased by about 20% year - on - year. The demand from enterprise customers for AI services has increased, and GPU leasing and API token usage have become new sources of revenue [13][14]. - Alibaba: In fiscal year 2025, the revenue growth rate of Alibaba Cloud's public cloud accelerated significantly, and the revenue of AI - related products has achieved triple - digit growth for seven consecutive quarters. The company clearly takes "AI + Cloud" as its core growth direction [14]. - Meituan: In 2025, it introduced AI technology and intelligent assistant tools in multiple scenarios, which helps optimize resource allocation and improve user and merchant experience [14]. - Xiaomi: By the end of 2024, the Xiaomi AIoT platform had connected 904 million devices (excluding smartphones and laptops), showing that AI has formed a real and continuous demand in the terminal [15]. 3.2 Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index: Fully Covers the Hong Kong Technology Field and has High Offensive Elasticity 3.2.1 The Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index Focuses on Leading Technology Companies in the Hong Kong Stock Market - The Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index selects 30 listed company securities with large market capitalizations in the technology - related fields that are listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and eligible for the Stock Connect program as index samples. As of December 31, 2025, the sum of the weights of the top five constituent stocks was 60.45%, and the sum of the weights of the top ten constituent stocks was 79.53%. Leading enterprises such as Tencent Holdings, Alibaba - W, Xiaomi Group - W, and Meituan - W have a weight of more than 10% [4][20]. 3.2.2 Comparison of the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index with Other Hong Kong Technology Indexes - In terms of the main industries covered by the index, the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has a wider coverage. It includes the pharmaceutical industry compared with the Hang Seng Technology Index and adds hardware equipment, semiconductors, automobiles, and the pharmaceutical industry compared with the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index. In terms of the single - weight limit, it increases the weights of heavy - weight stocks compared with the Hang Seng Technology Index, making the index more elastic [4][28]. 3.2.3 The Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has Relatively Excellent Historical Performance - From 2019 to 2025, the annualized return of the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index was 12.98%, and the Sharpe ratio was 0.35, both significantly higher than those of the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index. In annual return comparisons, it has greater elasticity in good market conditions and smaller decline amplitudes in poor market conditions [4][36]. 3.3 Analysis of the Investment Value of the Huaxia Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF 3.3.1 The Circulating Shares have been Continuously Increasing Since Listing and the On - site Liquidity is Good - Since its listing on September 3, 2025, the circulating shares of the Huaxia Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF have been increasing. As of January 27, 2026, the circulating shares increased to 3.059 billion, a 131.22% increase compared with the listing. Its on - site average daily turnover was 341 million yuan, and the highest daily turnover reached 792 million yuan [4][42][43]. 3.3.2 The Current Fund Managers' Managed ETF Products - The current fund managers of the Huaxia Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF are Mr. Xu Meng and Ms. Wang Xinwei. Taking Mr. Xu Meng as an example, as of January 27, 2026, he is currently managing 10 ETF products with a total scale of 222.98 billion yuan [49].