中国有色矿业（1258.HK）2024 年年报&2025 年一季报点评 历史最佳年度归母净利，期待自产铜持续增长 2025 年 04 月 26 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：邱祖学 分析师：张弋清 执业证号：S0100521120001 执业证号：S0100523100001 邮箱：qiuzuxue@mszq.com 邮箱：zhangyiqing@mszq.com ➢ 事件：2025 年 4 月 25 日，公司发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报。2024 年公司实现营收 38.17 亿美元，同比增长 5.8%，实现归母净利润 3.99 亿美元， 同比增长 43.6%。单季度看，2024Q4 公司实现归母净利润 0.85 亿美元，同比 增长 273.9%，环比减少 11.1%；2025Q1 公司实现归母净利润 1.23 亿美元，同 比增长 46%，环比增长 46%。25Q1 业绩超市场预期。 ➢ 2024 年归母净利润创历史最佳，主要得益于铜价上涨。 ➢ 2025 年一季度公司归母净利润同环比均大幅提升，主要得益于铜价上涨以 及铜产量恢复正常。 ① 产量： 2025Q1 公 司 粗 铜 及 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company reported FY25Q3 revenue of $1.2 billion, a decrease of 2% year-over-year, with Non-GAAP operating profit at $140 million, down 0.2%, and Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders at $110 million, down 14% [1] - Excluding self-operated products and live e-commerce, revenue grew by 21.2% this quarter, with overseas exam preparation and consulting revenues increasing by approximately 7.1% and 21.4%, respectively [2] - The company is focusing on sustainable long-term growth by enhancing product quality and operational efficiency, while also integrating innovative technologies into its educational offerings [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - The Non-GAAP operating profit margin for the quarter was 13.3%, down from 15.1% in the same period last year, impacted by slower growth in overseas business and investments in newly integrated cultural tourism operations [3] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for FY25-27 to $4.9 billion, $5.8 billion, and $6.8 billion, respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits projected at $460 million, $570 million, and $690 million [4]

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 绿源集团控股(2451.HK) 投资评级 上次评级 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱： jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 骆峥 轻工制造行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525020001 邮 箱： luozheng1@cindasc.com 邓健全 汽车行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525010002 邮 箱： dengjianquan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 绿源集团控股：电动两轮车稳健增长，积极布 局新成长曲线 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 26 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] 2024 年年报。24 年公司实现收入 50.72 亿元（-0.2%）， 归母净利润 1.17 亿 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 报 告 银行 2025 年 04 月 25 日 招商银行 (03968) ——攻守兼备，标杆银行静待重估 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 339,123.00 | 337,488.00 | 344,327.10 | 359,054.26 | 384,466.69 | | 同比增长率（%） | (1.64) | (0.48) | 2.03 | 4.28 | 7.08 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 146,602.00 | 148,391.00 | 153,326.11 | 161,290.25 | 176,727.73 | | 同比增长率（%） | 6.22 | 1.22 | 3.33 | 5.19 | 9.57 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 5.63 | 5.66 | 5.86 | 6.17 | 6.79 | | 净资产收益率（%） | 16.22 | 14.49 | 13. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5][8] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure but is actively positioning itself in core cities [1][5] - Despite a cooling real estate market, the company reported a revenue increase of 20.7% year-on-year for 2024, reaching approximately RMB 158.55 billion [5] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was RMB 1.60 billion, a decrease of 48.8% compared to 2023 [5] - The company has focused on acquiring land in core cities, with 92% of its new saleable value located in first and second-tier cities [5] - The average financing cost has decreased to 3.7%, down from 4.1% in 2023, indicating improved debt management [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 131.95 billion, with a projected decline to RMB 152.99 billion in 2025, reflecting a -4% year-on-year growth rate [1] - The net profit for 2023 was RMB 3.09 billion, with a forecasted increase to RMB 2.55 billion by 2027 [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 0.74 in 2025, RMB 0.86 in 2026, and RMB 1.00 in 2027 [1][5] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 15.5 in 2024 to 9.7 by 2027 [1][5] Market Positioning - The company has maintained a strong sales performance, with a sales area of 14.09 million square meters in 2024, despite an 8.9% year-on-year decline [5] - The company has successfully launched 42 new projects in 2024, with a total saleable value of approximately RMB 108.8 billion [5] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was reported at 12.76%, a slight decrease from the previous year [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company is expected to see rapid growth in adjusted profits in 2024, with business development (BD) achievements highlighting its innovative capabilities, leading to potential valuation increases [1][2] - The company reported a revenue of 6.635 billion RMB in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 0.4%, and an adjusted net profit of approximately 1.018 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 41.6% [1][2] - The innovative drug segment is projected to continue its upward trend, with revenues from innovative drugs reaching 4.928 billion RMB in 2024, accounting for 74.3% of total revenue [2] Summary by Sections Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a group revenue of 6.635 billion RMB and a net profit of 733 million RMB, with an adjusted net profit of approximately 1.018 billion RMB [1] - The company has made significant progress with multiple innovative drugs, including the approval of two new drugs and the acceptance of three new drug NDAs [1] Innovation - The revenue from innovative drugs is expected to grow, driven by existing products and new launches, maintaining a high growth rate [2] - The partnership with AbbVie for the licensing of a new candidate drug demonstrates the strength of the company's innovation platform [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is projected to be 0.43, 0.55, and 0.63 RMB, respectively, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 times based on the closing price on April 24, 2025 [3] - The company is expected to maintain rapid growth in performance driven by both existing and new innovative drug products [3]

证 券 研 究 报 告 泡泡玛特（09992.HK）2025 年一季度经营数据点评 强推（维持） 收入超预期增长，IP 生态全面升级中 目标价：210 港元 事项： 公司公布 1Q25 业务状况，预计收入同增 165%-170%（未经审计），超出此前 业绩会 100%指引，其中中国业务（注：港澳台从海外调入中国业务）同比增 长 95%-100%，线下渠道同比增长 85%-90%，线上渠道同比增长 140%-145%； 海外业务同比增长 475%~480%，亚太同比增长 345%~350%，美洲同比增长 895%~900%，欧洲同比增长 600%~605%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 13,038 | 24,825 | 34,091 | 43,480 | | 同比增速(%) | 105.5% | 90.4% | 37.3% | 27.5% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3,125 | 6,249 | 8,8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The core education business shows steady revenue growth, while the overseas and cultural tourism businesses are dragging down profits [1] - For FY25Q3, the company achieved net revenue of $1.183 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $87 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [5][6] Revenue Performance - FY25Q3 net revenue (excluding revenue from self-operated products and live e-commerce) was $1.038 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.2%, aligning with previous guidance [6] - Breakdown of revenue sources includes: - Overseas exam preparation business: revenue grew by 7.1% - Overseas consulting business: revenue grew by 21.4% - Domestic exam preparation for adults and university students: revenue grew by 17.0% - New education business: revenue grew by 34.5% [6] Profitability Analysis - FY25Q3 operating profit margin was 10.5%, up from 9.4% in the same period last year; Non-GAAP operating profit margin was 12.0%, compared to 11.8% [8] - The report anticipates that the core education business's Non-GAAP operating profit margin will improve year-on-year in FY25Q4, despite pressures from the overseas high-end one-on-one business and cultural tourism [8] Future Outlook - The company expects FY25Q4 net revenue (excluding self-operated products and live e-commerce) to be between $1.009 billion and $1.037 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 10%-13% [7] - The revenue growth rate is expected to slow down due to increased base effects and macroeconomic uncertainties [7] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for FY2025-2027 to $406 million, $536 million, and $679 million, respectively, reflecting a conservative outlook [9] - Corresponding EPS for FY2025-2027 is projected to be $0.25, $0.33, and $0.42, with current stock price corresponding to P/E ratios of 19x, 14x, and 11x [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 康哲药业 (0867.HK) [10] Core Views - 康哲药业 plans to spin off its subsidiary 德镁医药有限公司 for independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance the growth potential of its skin health business [6] - The spin-off will allow 康哲药业 shareholders to directly hold shares in 德镁医药, benefiting from its independent valuation and market position [6][7] - The skin health business has shown significant growth, with 康哲美丽 achieving a revenue of RMB 673 million in 2024, an 18.2% increase year-on-year [8] - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of RMB 83.20 billion, RMB 94.54 billion, and RMB 110.43 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 14%, and 17% respectively [10] Financial Summary - For 2024, 康哲药业 reported a revenue of RMB 7,469 million, with a projected net profit of RMB 1,620 million [12] - The company anticipates a net profit of RMB 1,628 million in 2025, with further increases to RMB 1,895 million in 2026 and RMB 2,255 million in 2027 [12] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 72.60% in 2024 to 74.50% by 2027 [12] - The report highlights a stable return on equity (ROE) projected to rise from 9.93% in 2024 to 10.20% in 2027 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook [4] Core Views - The overall retail value for FY25Q4 decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, with a 10.4% decline in mainland China retail value. Same-store sales in mainland China dropped by 13.2%, with specific declines in jewelry and gold products [1][7] - The company has seen a narrowing decline in retail values, with notable performance from the "Chuanfu" and "Palace Museum" series, achieving sales of 4 billion HKD each for the fiscal year [1][7] - The company is focusing on channel optimization and improving profitability, with a total of 6,423 stores at the end of FY25, having closed 892 stores during the year [1][7] Financial Data and Valuation - Projected total revenue for FY2025 is 90.375 billion HKD, with a year-on-year decline of 17%. Expected net profit for FY2025 is 5.547 billion HKD, reflecting a 15% decrease [3][11] - The current market capitalization is 90 billion HKD, with a PE ratio of 15X for FY26 [4][12] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is reported at 25.6% [4] Store Performance - Same-store sales in mainland China for FY25Q4 saw a decline of 13.2%, with a notable 22.5% drop in Hong Kong and Macau [1][7] - The company has opened new fashion stores in Shanghai and Wuhan, which have performed above average in their initial months [1][7] Product Performance - Retail value for jewelry and platinum products in mainland China increased by 2.4% year-on-year, while gold product sales saw a decline of 12.3% [1][7] - The proportion of priced products in the gold category increased significantly from 9.4% in FY24Q4 to 25.6% in FY25Q4, supporting the resilience of the group's gross margin [1][7]