证券研究报告 能源/基础材料 美印协议下国内炼厂成本优势或凸显 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 09 日│中国内地 动态点评 当地时间 2 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普表示美印已达成贸易协议，将美国对印 度商品的关税从 50%削减至 18%，同时印度将停止购买俄罗斯石油并转而 从美国等购买石油。由于欧盟针对俄罗斯的第 18 轮制裁包括从 26 年初起 禁止进口由俄油加工得到的产品，印度自 25 年 11 月起已逐步减少俄罗斯 石油进口量，导致俄油折价水平显著扩大，1 月末 ESPO 较 Brent 折价较 25 年 10 月末已显著提升超 10 美元/桶至 17.15 美元/桶。我们认为美印"石 油换关税"协议达成或将导致印度俄油进口量进一步下滑，俄油折价水平或 将维持高位，叠加人民币升值潜力，均有望带动我国炼厂原油采购成本优势 进一步凸显。 欧盟制裁叠加美印"石油换关税"协议，俄油折价水平显著提升 据海关总署，2025 年我国原油进口量同比增长 4.6%至 5.8 亿吨，自俄罗斯 /沙特/伊拉克/马来西亚/巴西进口量占比分别为 17%/14%/11%/11%/8%，其 中 25 年 12 月我国原油进口量/俄 ...

2026 年 2 月 08 日│美国 互联网 亚马逊 4Q 业绩：收入同增 13.6%至 2134 亿美元，超 VA 一致预期 1%（下 同）。北美、国际、AWS 营收分别同增 10%、17%、24%，对应经营利润 率同比+1/-1/-1.9pct。4Q 经营利润剔除非经常损益后 274 亿美元（超预期 4%），净利润同增 6%至 212 亿美元。4Q 资本开支达到 385 亿美元，超预 期 12%。尽管 4Q 云增速和行业差距扩大（对比谷歌云、微软智能云 +48/29%yoy），我们认为应更多关注中长期催化：①Anthropic 已开始使用 Rainier 进行模型训练，叠加近期 AWS EC2 上调价格，强劲需求有望支撑 AWS 在 26 年加速增长；②亚马逊正与 OpenAI 洽谈至多 500 亿美元的潜 在投资，后续有望引入 OpenAI 定制化模型至其 AI 产品（例如智能语音助 手 Alexa）；③Agentic 购物渗透有望加速，公司亦计划引入更多三方智能 助手；近期 Cowork 及集成 Gemini 的 Chrome 已对用户渗透形成推动。维 持"增持"评级。 26 年 Capex 指引同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment sentiment towards the technology sector ETFs, highlighting a "contrarian" inflow of funds despite a downturn in the underlying stock prices [1][6]. Core Insights - The technology sector ETFs in Hong Kong experienced a net inflow of 173.59 billion, with specific inflows of 112.76 billion for the Hang Seng Technology Index ETFs and 28.12 billion for the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index ETFs, both exceeding 5% of their respective total ETF sizes [1][6]. - Historical data suggests that when the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index see a weekly decline of over 5% alongside a net inflow of over 500 million, there is a high probability of a rebound in short-term returns [9][11]. - The Hang Seng Internet Technology Index, which includes only internet-related companies, shows a sharper focus in the technology sub-sector, making it a potential area for continued investor interest [6][12]. Summary by Sections ETF Fund Flows - The technology sector led the net inflows among various ETF categories, with significant contributions from medical, financial, consumer, and high-end manufacturing sectors [2][15]. - The total net inflow for the technology sector ETFs was 173.59 billion, while other sectors saw lower inflows, indicating a strong preference for technology investments during the reporting period [15]. ETF Trading Activity - The top five ETFs by trading volume included those tracking the Hang Seng Technology and Internet Technology indices, with trading volumes of 989.65 billion and 234.63 billion respectively [3][16]. - The report highlights that the trading activity in these ETFs reflects investor confidence despite the overall market downturn [3][19]. ETF Issuance - In the past two weeks, three new Hong Kong ETFs were established, focusing on diverse themes including biotechnology, dividends, and technology, with a total fundraising of 20.79 billion [4][21]. - The report notes the increasing variety in ETF offerings, which may cater to different investor interests and market conditions [4][22]. ETF Financing - The report indicates that the Huatai Baichuan Hang Seng Technology ETF had a financing buy-in amount exceeding 50 billion, showcasing strong investor engagement [2][20]. - Other ETFs, such as the E Fund Hang Seng Technology ETF and the Huaxia Hang Seng Internet Technology ETF, also reported significant financing activities, indicating robust market participation [20][19].

证券研究报告 宏观 春运出行较为活跃 2026 年 2 月 08 日│中国内地 国内周报 一周概览 农历春节对齐后的高频数据显示，春运前五天人员流动量同比景气度较高， 节前工业生产活动同比有所降温，新房和二手房成交同比亦有所回落；港口 高频指标显示 1 月出口或保持较高景气度。上周人民币兑美元汇率升值、国 债收益率趋平，银行间流动性整体偏松；本周重点关注 1 月通胀数据和货币 信贷"开门红"成色。 高频经济活动跟踪 居民出行景气度小幅回落，工业生产与建筑开工和地产成交同比仍偏弱。出 行及消费方面，春运前 5 天（2 月 2-6 日）全社会跨区域人员流动量累计同 比增长 1.9%，其中公路/水路/民航发送旅客数量同比增长 2%/19.8%/5.8%， 而铁路发送客运量同比回落 0.7%；飞猪数据显示，截至 2 月 5 日，春节假 期高星级酒店预订量同比增长近 70%。节前工业生产趋于平淡，焦化/沥青/ 半钢胎企业开工率同比下行 2.6/4.8/6.1 个百分点；建筑开工需求偏弱，建 筑钢材成交量同比降幅走阔至 47.4%，而偏低基数下水泥开工/发运率同比 上行 5.1/1.8 个百分点。出口及物流方面，出口高频 ...

证券研究报告 +(86) 10 6321 1166 张皓怡* 研究员 SAC No. S0570522020001 zhanghaoyi@htsc.com 寒武纪 (688256 CH) 新品进展顺利，上调 27 年预测 目标价(人民币): 1,679.40 郭龙飞* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525080001 guolongfei@htsc.com 林文富* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525100003 linwenfu@htsc.com 王心怡 研究员 SAC No. S0570523110001 SFC No. BTB527 xinyi.wang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 2 月 6 日) | 1,037 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 437,283 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 12,998 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) | 523.50-1,587.91 | 股价走势图 (13) 32 77 121 166 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 Feb ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Amazon with a target price of $260 [6]. Core Insights - Amazon's Q4 revenue increased by 13.6% year-over-year to $213.4 billion, exceeding consensus expectations by 1% [1]. - The company reported a Q4 operating profit of $27.4 billion, which was 4% above expectations, and a net profit increase of 6% to $21.2 billion [1]. - Capital expenditures for Q4 reached $38.5 billion, surpassing expectations by 12% [1]. - Concerns arose regarding cash flow and high valuation due to a significant increase in 2026 Capex guidance to $200 billion, compared to the expected $147.5 billion [2]. - AWS revenue growth was 24% year-over-year, although it lagged behind competitors like Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure [3]. - The company is focusing on high-end organic grocery products through its Whole Foods brand, with plans to open over 100 new stores in the coming years [4]. - Adjustments to revenue and net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were made, reflecting a slowdown in AWS growth and increased capital expenditures [5]. Financial Performance - Q4 operating margin was reported at 11.3%, with a net margin of 10.7% [18]. - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to be between $137.5 billion and $178.5 billion, aligning with expectations [2]. - The annualized revenue for AWS is projected to exceed $100 billion, with significant contributions from self-developed chips like Trainium and Graviton [3]. - The report anticipates a decrease in net profit margins due to increased capital expenditures and depreciation [5]. Business Segments - North American e-commerce revenue grew by 10%, while international e-commerce revenue increased by 17% [4]. - The grocery business is transitioning to focus on high-end organic products, with a total annual sales exceeding $150 billion [4]. - The AI shopping assistant Rufus has expanded its user base to over 300 million, significantly increasing transaction probabilities for users [15]. Future Outlook - The report projects Amazon's revenue for 2026 to be $806 billion, with net profit expected to reach $84 billion [8]. - The company is investing heavily in its Leo project, which aims to provide low-orbit satellite internet services, enhancing its cloud offerings [15]. - AWS is expected to enter a new pricing cycle, with recent price increases for EC2 instances indicating strong demand for cloud services [10].

证券研究报告 东京电子 (8035 JP) 存储订单增长推动业绩迅速回升 华泰研究 季报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 2026 年 2 月 08 日│日本 科技 目标价(日元): 52,000.00 黄乐平，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050001 SFC No. AUZ066 leping.huang@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 股价走势图 资料来源：S&P (34) (8) 19 46 72 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 Feb-26 (%) 东京电子 日经225 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 (日元) | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 (十亿) | 2,432 | 2,414 | 2,773 | 3,195 | | +/-% | 32.83 | (0.72) | 14.86 | 15.22 | | 归属母公司净利润 | 544 | 550 | 614 | 737 | | (十亿) | | | | | | +/-% | 49.50 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the companies in the prepared food industry, specifically for Anjuke Food (2648 HK, 603345 CH) and Sanquan Food (002216 CH) [5][11]. Core Insights - The introduction of national standards for prepared foods is expected to enhance industry order and standardization, benefiting leading companies due to their comprehensive advantages in R&D, production, cold chain logistics, and quality control [6][7]. - The prepared food industry is transitioning from a chaotic phase to a more regulated one, with the new standards raising entry barriers and improving consumer confidence in product quality [9][10]. - The report anticipates a strong demand for inventory ahead of the Spring Festival, with a recovery in channel confidence, and a long-term trend towards food industrialization [7][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The prepared food industry is undergoing a process of standardization, with the new national standards defining the scope and management of prepared foods, emphasizing the control of food contaminants and additives [6][9]. - The standards stipulate that the maximum shelf life of prepared foods should not exceed 12 months, which aligns with the health-conscious consumption trend [10]. Company Recommendations - Anjuke Food (2648 HK) is highlighted as a leader in the frozen hot pot ingredient sector, with a target price of 99.38 HKD, benefiting from improved fundamentals and a rational competitive landscape [12]. - Anjuke Food (603345 CH) is also rated "Buy" with a target price of 113.04 CNY, as the company is expected to see profit recovery and growth driven by product innovation and structural adjustments [12]. - Sanquan Food (002216 CH) is recommended with a target price of 13.44 CNY, as the company is focusing on product innovation and channel diversification to improve operational quality [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the technology and computer sectors [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing evolution of AI models, particularly focusing on the advancements in Agent capabilities and the increasing differentiation between computing power and SaaS applications [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections AI Models - DeepSeek has launched DeepSeek-OCR 2, which enhances visual understanding capabilities and aims to improve the next generation of models [10][23]. - Kimi K2.5 introduces the Agent Swarm architecture, significantly improving efficiency in complex tasks through parallel agents [24][30]. - Tencent's CL-bench aims to quantify and improve the context learning capabilities of large models, revealing a need for better handling of new knowledge [32][39]. AI Computing - The report identifies Agent penetration as the next acceleration point for token usage, with significant advancements in long-chain task capabilities observed since late 2025 [2][49]. - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) have reported continuous growth in capital expenditures, indicating optimistic AI demand [50][51]. AI Applications - The performance of cloud service providers has accelerated, with AI application companies exceeding market expectations in Q4 2025, while SaaS market expectations remain pessimistic [3][57]. - The report anticipates a comprehensive acceleration in global AI applications in 2026, with potential for SaaS companies to realize product value and corporate re-evaluation [3][57]. AI for Science (AI4S) - The report highlights the commercialization potential of AI in biopharmaceuticals and materials science, predicting significant advancements in 2026 [4][17]. Monthly Focus - The report discusses the rapid iteration of Agentic Coding products and the potential restructuring of the software industry due to advancements in agent applications [5][28].

证券研究报告 港股通 双周期共振下牧业龙头或迎价值重估 2026 年 2 月 07 日│中国香港 饮料 我们认为，26 年公司经营基本面与盈利预期有望迎来积极改善：一方面， 原奶行业周期再平衡时点将至，26 年原奶价格有望企稳回升，或将直接修 复公司核心盈利；另一方面，肉牛板块有望迎来价格主升浪，或将为公司带 来显著利润弹性。叠加收购中国圣牧的潜在结构优化，公司规模壁垒与抗周 期能力将持续强化，业绩修复与估值提升的空间有望逐步打开。 26 年原奶周期再平衡时点将至，B 端深加工业务国产替代加速演绎 本轮周期中奶牛存栏持续调减，低效产能加速出清，叠加下游乳制品需求有 望回暖、奶酪和奶油等深加工产品的国产替代持续进行，原奶供需矛盾持续 缓解，行业供需再平衡进程加快。据农业农村部，26 年 1 月生鲜乳价格均 值为 3.03 元/公斤，同比-3%、环比基本持平。现代牧业作为国内原奶核心 供应龙头，自有牧场规模与奶源稳定性优势突出，未来或受益于原奶价格修 复带来的盈利改善。 26 年牛肉价格或迎来主升浪，或进一步增强公司报表利润弹性 23-24 年国内肉牛产能持续去化，或导致 26 年实际牛肉供给不足，叠加商 务部对 ...