证券研究报告 超威半导体(AMD) (AMD US) 客户集中度和订单节奏成焦点 华泰研究 年报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(美元): 300.00 何翩翩 研究员 SAC No. S0570523020002 SFC No. ASI353 +(852) 3658 6000 易楚妍 联系人 yichuyan@htsc.com SAC No. S0570124070123 SFC No. BXH065 +(86) 21 2897 2228 韩冬冰* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070150 handongbing@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (美元 截至 2 月 3 日) | 242.11 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (美元百万) | 394,165 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (美元百万) | 10,324 | | 52 周价格范围 (美元) | 76.48-267.08 | 股价走势图 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 (美元) | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to expand its store count significantly, with a long-term target of 35,000 stores, driven by a unique "onion ring" expansion strategy and strong supply chain capabilities [2][12]. - The introduction of new product categories, including coffee and desserts, is anticipated to enhance store efficiency and broaden customer demographics, contributing to sustained growth [3][19]. - The company is projected to achieve an adjusted net profit of 2.913 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17% and a net profit margin of 18.3% [4][24]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 36.73 HKD, reflecting a 27x PE for 2026 [6][5]. Store Expansion Potential - The company is projected to reach a store count of 35,375 by leveraging regional density improvements and supply-demand growth perspectives [14][2]. - The expansion strategy focuses on deepening market penetration in existing regions while exploring new markets, with a significant increase in store density expected in both established and emerging areas [12][13]. Product and Service Diversification - The company has accelerated its transformation into a multi-category "beverage convenience store," introducing new products that fill gaps in non-peak consumption times, thus expanding its customer base [3][19]. - The new store model (version 6.0) aims to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency, supporting the brand's transition from scale expansion to quality improvement [21][22]. Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2026 is set at 2.913 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 17% and a healthy net profit margin of 18.3% [4][24]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in adjusted net profit from 2.486 billion RMB in 2025 to 2.913 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][24]. Core Insights - The company is expected to expand its store count significantly, with a long-term target of 35,000 stores, driven by a unique "onion ring" expansion strategy and strong supply chain capabilities [2][14]. - The company is transitioning from a tea beverage leader to a multi-category pioneer, introducing new product lines such as coffee, desserts, and HPP juices, which are expected to enhance store efficiency and broaden customer demographics [3][19]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 2.913 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17%, with a net profit margin of 18.3% [4][24]. Summary by Sections Store Expansion Potential - The company has a long-term store expansion potential of approximately 35,375 stores, based on regional density improvements and supply-demand growth perspectives [2][14]. - The company has entered new provinces and strengthened its competitive barriers in existing regions, enhancing brand recognition and supply chain synergy [12][13]. Product and Store Model Innovation - The company has accelerated its transformation into a multi-category "beverage convenience store," effectively filling gaps in non-peak consumption periods and expanding its customer base [3][19]. - The introduction of the 6.0 store model aims to enhance brand quality and customer experience, with a focus on optimizing dining experiences and increasing in-store consumption [21][22]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company’s adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.486 billion, 2.913 billion, and 3.693 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding adjusted EPS of 1.05, 1.22, and 1.55 RMB [5][10]. - The target price has been raised to 36.73 HKD, reflecting a 27x PE ratio for 2026, indicating a strong growth outlook despite potential short-term challenges [24][26].

Group 1: Arbitrage Strategy Overview - The term "IRR" refers to the Implied Repo Rate, which indicates the theoretical annualized return from buying cash bonds and shorting futures for delivery[12] - The two main arbitrage strategies are "positive arbitrage" (shorting futures while buying cash bonds) and "negative arbitrage" (going long on futures while shorting cash bonds)[11] - Positive arbitrage is considered to have a near risk-free nature, and it is compared with high-grade interbank deposit yields[13] Group 2: Performance and Backtesting - In the first half of 2025, there were periods of high positive arbitrage yields, particularly for the TS2506 and TF2506 contracts, with IRR values of 2.20% and 2.05% respectively[18][25] - Backtesting results show that constructing a positive arbitrage strategy for TS2506 yielded higher returns than holding cash bonds until delivery, while TF2506 underperformed compared to directly holding 5-year cash bonds[26] - The IRR for the T2312 contract was 3.93% on October 31, 2023, significantly higher than the 1-month deposit yield of 2.50%[17] Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - The market is expected to remain volatile, with a focus on the TL2603 contract for shorting basis opportunities as it approaches delivery[4] - The IRS strategy shows limited upside potential, while interbank deposits are considered to have better value[5] - Current IRR levels for various contracts are fluctuating, with T2603's IRR ranging from 1.13% to 1.76%, indicating no significant advantage over 3-month interbank deposit rates[73]

证券研究报告 谷歌 (GOOGL US) 高 CapEx 投入强化云业务增长动能 华泰研究 年报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(美元): 415.00 何翩翩 研究员 SAC No. S0570523020002 SFC No. ASI353 夏路路 研究员 SAC No. S0570523100002 SFC No. BTP154 丁骄琬 研究员 SAC No. S0570523040003 dingjiaowan@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 易楚妍 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070123 SFC No. BXH065 韩冬冰* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070150 handongbing@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 股价走势图 资料来源：S&P (25) 1 28 54 80 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 Feb-26 (%) 谷歌 标普500 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 (美元) | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

华泰研究 年报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(美元): 415.00 何翩翩 研究员 证券研究报告 谷歌 (GOOGL US) 高 CapEx 投入强化云业务增长动能 SAC No. S0570523020002 SFC No. ASI353 夏路路 研究员 SAC No. S0570523100002 SFC No. BTP154 丁骄琬 研究员 SAC No. S0570523040003 dingjiaowan@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 易楚妍 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070123 SFC No. BXH065 韩冬冰* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070150 handongbing@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 牟睿捷* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070064 mouruijie@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (美元 截至 2 月 4 日) | 333.04 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (美元百万) | 4,018,794 | | 6 ...

Group 1: Economic and Industry Trends - The overall industry prosperity index rose for the second consecutive month in January, with significant improvements in upstream resources, midstream materials, consumer staples, and TMT sectors [3] - Price increases, AI advancements, and external demand are driving internal prosperity across various sectors, with expectations of further recovery in consumption and travel chains during the Spring Festival [3] - Specific sectors such as non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and certain chemicals are experiencing a rebound in prosperity, while AI-related applications are seeing differentiated growth [3] Group 2: Fixed Income Strategies - The report discusses the use of futures for enhancing returns in a low-interest-rate environment, focusing on the common strategy of cash-futures arbitrage [4] - Positive yield periods for cash-futures arbitrage were noted in the first half of 2025, particularly for specific contracts, indicating potential for increased portfolio returns [4] Group 3: Gold Market Insights - Central banks are reallocating assets towards gold, which is expected to support long-term price increases, with projections suggesting gold prices could rise to $5400-$6800 per ounce by 2026-2028 [8] - The report highlights a shift in gold pricing dynamics, potentially moving from a framework dominated by real interest rates to one influenced by credit risk hedging [8] Group 4: Renewable Energy Sector - Wind and solar companies are facing profitability pressures due to low-priced project deliveries, but a recovery trend is anticipated in 2026 as order prices for wind turbines improve [8] - The report emphasizes the potential for profitability recovery in the solar sector through enhanced supply chain management and the introduction of high-power products [8] Group 5: Construction Materials - The electronic fabric market is entering a new price upcycle due to supply constraints and recovering demand, with significant price increases reported by leading manufacturers [9] - The report indicates that high-end electronic fabrics are expected to continue experiencing supply shortages, leading to further price hikes [9] Group 6: Coal Market Dynamics - Export restrictions from Indonesia could significantly impact China's coal consumption, potentially driving up spot coal prices [10] Group 7: Macro Economic Analysis - The report analyzes the potential impacts of the Lunar New Year on macroeconomic data, emphasizing the need to filter out distortions caused by the holiday [11] Group 8: Japanese Political Landscape - The upcoming Japanese House of Representatives election is expected to favor the ruling party, which may lead to more expansive fiscal policies and impact the stock market positively while negatively affecting bonds and the yen [12] Group 9: Company-Specific Insights - Lin Qingxuan is highlighted as a rapidly growing high-end skincare brand with a clear market positioning and product strategy, receiving a "buy" rating with a target price of 130.88 HKD [19] - Google is projected to see significant growth in its cloud business, despite concerns over increased capital expenditures, maintaining a "buy" rating [15] - Sony's strong performance in gaming and sensors is noted, with a target price adjustment to 5,000 JPY while maintaining a "buy" rating [16] - Eaton is expected to benefit from data center demand and operational efficiency, with a target price of 418 USD and a "hold" rating [17]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Lin Qingxuan with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 130.88, corresponding to a 2026 adjusted PE of 28x [6][11]. Core Insights - Lin Qingxuan focuses on high-end anti-wrinkle and firming products, pioneering the "oil-based skincare" concept. The brand has a clear positioning and product category mindset, with significant growth potential in its market segment [6][10]. - The company has developed its flagship product, Camellia Oil, into its fifth generation, and its "1+4" product strategy includes a diverse range of products such as lotions, toners, creams, serums, and sunscreens, which are expected to drive future growth [6][8]. - Lin Qingxuan's omnichannel sales network supports steady growth in both online and offline sales, with strong R&D capabilities expected to reinforce its market leadership in niche segments and enable product innovation [6][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Lin Qingxuan are as follows: - 2024: RMB 1,210 million (+50.27%) - 2025: RMB 2,218 million (+83.34%) - 2026: RMB 3,214 million (+44.91%) - 2027: RMB 4,464 million (+38.91%) [5][11]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2024: RMB 200.24 million (+126.37%) - 2025: RMB 385.40 million (+92.47%) - 2026: RMB 589.34 million (+52.92%) - 2027: RMB 821.16 million (+39.33%) [5][11]. - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to be 11.0% in 2023 and 16.6% in 2024, indicating improved operational efficiency [10][24]. Market Dynamics - The "oil-based skincare" market is currently experiencing rapid penetration growth, driven by product innovation, increased brand investment in product education, and a shift in consumer awareness towards skin barrier repair [7][21]. - Lin Qingxuan has established a strong brand identity around the Camellia flower ingredient, which has become synonymous with its product offerings, enhancing consumer recognition and loyalty [8][22]. - The company has a robust offline presence with 554 stores as of the first half of 2025, and it is actively expanding its online sales channels, leveraging live streaming and collaborations with KOLs to capture growth opportunities [9][22]. Competitive Positioning - Lin Qingxuan's ability to incubate successful single products and replicate this success across categories positions it favorably within the high-end skincare market, which is relatively concentrated [10][17]. - The company’s focus on high-quality raw materials and integrated supply chain management is expected to solidify its leadership in niche markets [23][24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of $418.00 [1][5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $70.55 billion for Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13%, and a full-year revenue of $274.48 billion, up 10% year-on-year. The operating profit margin was 24.9% for Q4 2025 and 24.5% for FY25, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching $11.32 billion for Q4 2025, a 16.6% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from high demand in the electrical equipment sector, particularly from data center orders, which are projected to continue contributing to revenue growth. The company announced the acquisition of Boyd in November 2025 to enhance its liquid cooling product offerings and plans to spin off its mobility business to focus on its core electrical equipment operations [1][3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company's electrical Americas and global segments achieved revenues of $35.06 billion and $17.28 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 21% and 10%. The operating profit margins were 29.8% and 19.7%, with the Americas segment experiencing a decline in profit margin due to capacity expansion costs [2] - The company expects to see a significant increase in data center orders in 2025, with projections of 200% growth in the U.S. and 80% in Europe. AI and cloud services are anticipated to account for 50% of new data center orders [2] Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on enhancing its data center equipment supply chain and has announced the acquisition of Boyd to enter the liquid cooling market. This acquisition is expected to increase the market value of data center offerings from $2.9 million/MW to $3.4 million/MW, with an anticipated revenue contribution of approximately $1.7 billion from Boyd in 2026 [3][4] - The company is investing $1.5 billion to expand its production capacity across about 200 projects, with half of these expected to be completed by mid-2025. The remaining projects are projected to be completed by the first half of 2026, leading to a capacity release period from late 2026 to 2027 [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026-2028 is $48.8 billion, $56.6 billion, and $63.6 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of $12.48, $14.47, and $16.27 per share. The company is assigned a PE ratio of 33.5x for 2026, reflecting an 8% premium over comparable companies [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating for precious metals is "Overweight" (Maintain) [7] Core Insights - The report highlights that the long-term increase in gold holdings by central banks is driven by concerns over the creditworthiness of dollar assets, the need for stable exchange rates in extreme scenarios, and geopolitical risks. It is projected that central banks will continue to increase their gold reserves, stabilizing at around 800 tons per year from 2026 to 2030 [2] - The report anticipates that the average gold price could rise to between $5,400 and $6,800 per ounce from 2026 to 2028, driven by a potential increase in the investment allocation of gold in global financial assets [6] Summary by Sections Section 1: Gold Price Projections - The average gold price is expected to reach $6,800 per ounce by 2028, with projections for 2026 and 2027 being $5,463 and $6,059 per ounce respectively. This is based on historical distribution of gold allocation and structural shifts due to de-dollarization and geopolitical factors [6][12] Section 2: Central Bank Demand - Central banks are expected to maintain a long-term increase in gold holdings, with the proportion of gold in reserves projected to rise to 21.4% by mid-2025. If this proportion reaches the historical median of 34% by 2035, the demand for gold could continue to grow [2] Section 3: Non-Investment Demand - Non-investment demand for gold, primarily from jewelry and industrial uses, is expected to stabilize. Jewelry demand is projected to average around 1,951 tons per year, while industrial demand is expected to remain steady at approximately 332 tons per year [3] Section 4: Investment Demand - The report estimates that the stock of gold allocated for personal and institutional investment will gradually increase, with projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 being 85,713 tons, 86,642 tons, and 87,953 tons respectively [4] Section 5: Financial Asset Allocation - There is still room for increased allocation of gold in global financial assets, with the expected market value of investable gold reaching approximately $15.1 trillion, $16.9 trillion, and $19.3 trillion in 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [5][16]