证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 达势股份（01405.HK） 门店稳步扩张，盈利持续改善 2025 年 04 月 30 日 买入（维持） 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 邓洁 执业证书：S0600525030001 dengj@dwzq.com.cn 股价走势 -6% 5% 16% 27% 38% 49% 60% 71% 82% 93% 104% 2024/4/30 2024/8/29 2024/12/28 2025/4/28 达势股份 恒生指数 市场数据 | 收盘价(港元) | 95.00 | | --- | --- | | 一年最低/最高价 | 51.10/125.20 | | 市净率(倍) | 5.53 | | 港股流通市值(百万港 | 12,431.24 | | 元) | | 基础数据 | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） ...

2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 提质增效成果显著，现金充裕分红慷慨 ——绿城服务（2869.HK）2024 年度业绩点评 要点 事件：绿城服务 2024 年营收同比+6.5%，归母净利润同比+29.7%。 4 月 24 日，绿城服务发布 2024 年年度报告，期内实现营收 185 亿元（含 MAG， 公司在年内出售 MAG，为便于与上年比较，公司在损益表披露终止经营业务影 响下的收入和利润，而在管理层讨论与分析中未加以区分，下同），同比增长 6.5%，实现毛利 32 亿元，同比增长 9.7%，毛利率 17.3%，同比提升 0.5pct； 核心经营利润（毛利-行政开支-营销开支）15.9 亿元，同比增长 22.5%；归母净 利润 7.9 亿元，同比增长 29.7%。 点评：基本面优秀，核心业务稳健，提质增效成果显著，分红慷慨。 1）基本面优秀，核心业务稳健。2024 年公司物管/园区服务/咨询服务分别实现 收入 124.0/33.7/24.1 亿元，同比+11.7%/-5.5%/+5.1%，截至 2024 年末，公 司在管面积 5 亿平，稳居行业第一梯队，储备面积 3.6 亿平，未来可持续增长能 力较 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.451 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 98.2 million yuan, down 15.0% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is actively optimizing its store structure, closing underperforming stores, resulting in a total of 3,031 stores by the end of 2024, with a net closure of 785 stores [2] - The average single-store revenue for self-operated and franchised stores in 2024 was 840,000 yuan and 346,000 yuan respectively, indicating a significant decline due to weak consumer spending and intensified competition [2] - The gross profit margin improved by 4.4 percentage points to 56.8% in 2024, driven by cost reductions and lean management [2] - The company is focusing on enhancing single-store efficiency and optimizing product structure to improve competitiveness and brand strength [3] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 2,451 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -10.88% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 98.2 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -15.03% [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.07 yuan, 0.08 yuan, and 0.10 yuan respectively [3][4] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 4.01%, slightly down from the previous year [2][6] - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 420 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.3% [2] Industry Insights - The prepared food industry is facing challenges such as intensified competition from other snack categories and a shift in consumer spending patterns [2] - The recovery of single-store performance is seen as a key signal for a new round of development in the industry [2] - The company is leveraging its unique flavor appeal to enhance its product offerings in new distribution channels, including partnerships with major retailers like Costco [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, New Energy (2688 HK), with a target price of HKD 74.60, indicating a potential upside of 21.4% from the current price of HKD 61.45 [4][9]. Core Insights - The first quarter of 2025 saw gas sales remain stable, influenced by a warm winter, with retail gas volume showing a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, outperforming the mainland's natural gas apparent consumption decline of 2.2% [2][7]. - The management indicated that the warm winter impacted gas sales by approximately 2-3 percentage points, with residential gas sales increasing by 1.1% year-on-year [2][7]. - The privatization plan is progressing steadily, with expectations to seek shareholder approval in the fourth quarter of this year [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 113,858 million - 2024: RMB 109,853 million - 2025E: RMB 116,552 million (6.1% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 122,701 million - 2027E: RMB 129,239 million [3][11]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 6,816 million - 2024: RMB 5,987 million - 2025E: RMB 7,174 million (3.2% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 7,782 million - 2027E: RMB 8,098 million [3][11]. - The company is expected to maintain moderate profit growth over the next three years, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5% from 2024 to 2027 [7][8]. Operational Performance - The company’s retail gas sales volume is projected to grow as follows: - 2023: 25,145 million cubic meters - 2024: 26,200 million cubic meters - 2025E: 26,782 million cubic meters (2.2% growth) - 2026E: 27,588 million cubic meters - 2027E: 28,421 million cubic meters [8]. - The company has also seen a 9.9% year-on-year increase in its diversified energy sales volume, reaching 100 billion kWh in the first quarter [7][8]. Market Position - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 68,286.31 million, with a 52-week high of HKD 79.30 and a low of HKD 45.25 [6][9]. - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 10.03% [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "5.5" for the IPO, based on various criteria [6][7]. Core Insights - The company, Hu Shang A Yi, is a leading chain in the fresh tea beverage market in China, operating through a franchise model with product prices ranging from 7 to 22 RMB [1]. - Revenue projections for 2022, 2023, and 2024 are 2.2 billion, 3.35 billion, and 3.28 billion RMB, with growth rates of 34%, 52%, and -1.9% respectively [1]. - The company has a significant market presence, with a total of 9,176 stores as of December 2024, 50% of which are located in tier-three cities and below [2]. - The fresh tea beverage market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a market size of 258.5 billion RMB and a growth rate of 19% [3]. Company Overview - Hu Shang A Yi has established a robust supply chain network across China, including 12 major logistics warehouses and various cold chain facilities [4]. - The brand has gained national recognition since its inception in 2013, leveraging social media and collaborations to enhance its market presence [4]. - The company has seen significant store growth, with net increases of 1,531, 2,482, and 1,387 stores in 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, indicating a strong expansion strategy [1]. Industry Status and Outlook - The fresh beverage market in China is projected to continue its rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.5% from 2018 to 2023 [3]. - Hu Shang A Yi ranks first in store count in northern China and holds a 4.6% market share by GMV, placing it fifth overall in the industry [3]. Investment Considerations - The IPO price range is set between 95.57 and 113.12 HKD, with a post-IPO market capitalization estimated at 10 to 11.8 billion HKD [6][7]. - The company has secured cornerstone investors, including Yingfeng Holdings and Huabao, which have committed to 24.7% of the total issuance [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD Electronics with a target price of HKD 41.0, representing a potential upside of 28.9% from the recent closing price of HKD 31.8 [5]. Core Views - The first quarter performance of BYD Electronics was stable, with revenue of RMB 36.88 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.10%. The gross profit margin was 6.3%, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.58 percentage points but an increase of 0.43 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 622 million, up 1.92% year-on-year [1][2]. - The indirect impact of tariffs from the U.S. is considered to be greater than the direct impact, as the company's direct exports to the U.S. are minimal. The company has a broad global layout with factories in Vietnam, India, Malaysia, and Hungary, allowing it to provide low-cost solutions to mitigate risks [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1, the assembly business in the consumer electronics sector remained stable with slight growth, while the automotive business saw an increase due to higher order volumes. However, the demand for high-end smartphones decreased, affecting the gross profit and margin of the main business [2]. - The company reported a gross profit of RMB 2.325 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.35% [1]. Future Growth Drivers - For 2025, the assembly business is expected to continue growing, supported by improved efficiency at the Chengdu factory. The automotive electronics segment is anticipated to benefit from the overall growth in vehicle production and increased value per vehicle [3]. Market Position and Strategy - BYD Electronics is viewed positively for its technological leadership and customer resource advantages in the consumer electronics sector. The company is well-positioned to navigate the slow adjustment of supply chains by major clients due to its overseas production capacity [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 3.30, indicating a potential upside of 31.5% from the recent closing price of HKD 2.51 [1][4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of CNY 20.028 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.41%, driven by increased power generation from subsidiaries [2][4]. - However, the company's profit faced pressure, with a net profit of CNY 3.026 billion, down 16.07% year-on-year, primarily due to increased market trading volumes, declining market prices, and a significant rise in R&D expenses [2][4]. - The approval of four new nuclear units is expected to provide stable growth for the company's future capacity [3][4]. - The company has 16 units under construction, with a total capacity of 19,406 MW, indicating substantial growth potential [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are CNY 89.4 billion, CNY 93.6 billion, and CNY 99.2 billion, with growth rates of 2.96%, 4.69%, and 6.1% respectively [4][9]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are CNY 11 billion, CNY 11.7 billion, and CNY 12.2 billion, with growth rates of 2.08%, 5.73%, and 4.90% respectively [4][9]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of CNY 0.095 per share for 2024, maintaining a payout ratio of 44.36%, which is an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [11][13]. Core Insights - The "Self-Pleasing" new consumption concept supports the successful launch of the SU7, with the YU7 expected to replicate this success. Xiaomi is accelerating its layout of extended-range models, entering a strong product cycle, and is expected to achieve rapid sales of one million vehicles. Based on Xiaomi's steady growth trend in high-end penetration in its smartphone and IoT businesses, as well as the rapid ramp-up of its automotive segment, the projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated to be 35.404 billion, 51.653 billion, and 65.531 billion yuan respectively [4][11]. Summary by Sections SU7 Initial Success and YU7 Potential - The 200,000 to 300,000 yuan price segment for cars is continuously expanding, with the SU7 positioned accurately and establishing a mid-to-high-end brand tone, achieving an average monthly sales of 23,000 units since its launch. The YU7 is expected to target a larger market and leverage its comprehensive strengths to potentially become another bestseller [7][34]. Xiaomi's Methodology and Automotive Success - Xiaomi's success in the smartphone and IoT sectors has led to the development of a unique "User + Product + Technology + Efficiency" methodology. This includes a large fan base, self-developed motor and control technology, supply chain management to reduce production costs, and a focus on creating blockbuster products [8][9]. Strong Model Cycle and Sales Projections - The high-end market is expanding, with significant opportunities for domestic alternatives in the electric and intelligent vehicle sectors. The projected sales for the high-end passenger car market (priced above 200,000 yuan) in 2024 is 9.443 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. The CAGR for high-end market sales from 2020 to 2024 is 14.6%, with domestic brands expected to capture a growing market share [9][10]. Brand Synergy and Ecosystem Integration - The launch of the SU7 not only marks the realization of Xiaomi's car manufacturing plans but also extends its "Smartphone + AIoT" ecosystem strategy into the automotive sector. The interconnected ecosystem enhances user stickiness and drives revenue growth across other product lines, with the lifetime value of automotive users exceeding 230,000 yuan [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for Xiaomi to replicate Tesla's profitability rhythm, with expectations for the automotive segment to turn profitable by 2025, and a projected net profit per vehicle exceeding 10,000 yuan [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5] Core Views - The company's retail revenue for Q1 2025 showed low single-digit growth year-on-year, with offline channels also recording low single-digit growth and e-commerce channels achieving a growth rate in the low range of 10%-20% [2][3] - The company is undergoing channel adjustments, with a net decrease of 29 stores by the end of Q1 2025, including a reduction of 6 direct-operated stores and 23 wholesale stores [3] - The company expects to maintain steady progress, with projected annual revenue for 2025 remaining flat and a net profit margin in the high single digits [4] - The company has become a partner of the Chinese Olympic Committee (COC) for 2025-2028, which is anticipated to enhance brand strength and contribute to future marketing efforts [4] Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company reported a low single-digit growth in retail revenue for Q1 2025, aligning with market expectations [2] - Offline direct sales experienced a low single-digit decline due to channel structure optimization [3] - E-commerce channels showed a growth rate in the low range of 10%-20%, with platforms like Douyin and JD.com leading the online growth [3] Future Outlook - The company aims to maintain steady growth and expects the COC partnership to contribute positively to revenue [4] - The projected revenue for 2025 is estimated at 29,031 million RMB, with a growth rate of 1.24% [10] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain stable operations, with net profits projected at 28.57 billion RMB for 2025, 31.33 billion RMB for 2026, and 32.89 billion RMB for 2027 [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 for 2025, 11 for 2026, and 10 for 2027 [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in the specialty steel segment, with four synergistic business lines: tool steel, high-speed steel, cutting tools, and titanium alloys [3][20]. - The company has successfully broken the overseas monopoly in powder metallurgy and is positioned to benefit from the growing demand in high-end manufacturing sectors such as robotics and aerospace [19][65]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with significant investments aimed at enhancing its competitive edge in high-end materials [35][39]. Summary by Sections Global Specialty Steel Leader - Established in 1981, the company has evolved from cutting tools to high-speed steel, mold steel, and titanium alloys, achieving vertical integration in the high-speed steel cutting tool industry [20][21]. - The company launched China's first large-scale powder metallurgy production line in 2019, becoming the only domestic enterprise capable of large-scale production in this field [20][21]. Powder Metallurgy - The company is tapping into a vast domestic replacement market for powder metallurgy, with applications in aerospace and automotive sectors [2][19]. - Current production capacity for powder metallurgy has reached 5,000 tons, with plans to expand to 10,000 tons [2][66]. - The company has developed a new high-nitrogen steel patent, which is expected to penetrate high-end markets such as aerospace and robotics [2][19]. Titanium Alloys - The company is entering the 3C (computer, communication, consumer electronics) market, leveraging the lightweight and high-strength properties of titanium alloys [2][19]. - Production capacity for titanium alloys has reached 7,000 tons, with plans for an IPO to further expand operations [2][19]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to generate revenues of 5.1 billion, 5.6 billion, and 6.0 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 464 million, 533 million, and 577 million yuan [3][30]. - The expected price-to-earnings ratios for these years are 11.18, 9.73, and 8.99, indicating strong growth potential [3][30]. Market Perception - The market tends to view the company through the lens of traditional steel manufacturing, overlooking its differentiated competitive advantages in specialty steel [17][18]. - The company is expected to benefit from the structural growth in the specialty steel sector, which is less sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations compared to traditional steel [18][19].